The latest showdown between President Donald Trump and Congress could very well result in a shutdown of the government if Congress does not give Trump the wall that he has been aggressively pushing since his campaign. In order for Trump to get his wish, and the wall, some very complicated political dominoes will have to fall exactly right, and the chances of those pieces falling in Trump’s favor are extremely unlikely.

Trump has said that he is indeed willing to let the government shut down if he doesn’t get his wall, but as many as 24 Republican senators aren’t willing to pull the trigger on that funding. This disagreement exposes the fragmented nature of the President’s relationship with some of his own party’s top officials, including Mitch McConnell, who has reportedly been privately in doubt that Trump’s presidency will last.

Trump, who is content to stoke the flames via Twitter on any beef or vendetta, has used that bully pulpit to go after those Republicans who are less than enthusiastic about his wall, such as Senator Jeff Flake who represents Arizona. Trump tweeted last Wednesday “Not a fan of Jeff Flake, weak on crime & border!” When in fact the only thing that Flake has done is question the necessity of Trump’s border policy.

This kind of infighting sets the Democratic Party up well to present a united front and keep Trump’s border wall dead in the water, as the only way for Trump’s wall to get funded is to get at least 8 Democratic votes. That is looking more like an impossible mission for Trump and his Administration because the Democrats know that voting for his wall means that they will not be re-elected to their seats.

The Washington Post has listed several likely outcomes of Trump’s push to get his wall funded or risk shutting down the government and even though it is difficult to tell what exactly Trump will do when actually faced with shutting down the government over funding for his wall, the Post seems to think that a government shutdown is not very likely to happen.

I suppose we will just have to see what happens next.